Wildcats and Hoosiers mix it up in Big Ten action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/15/2012 - Bloomington, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Big Ten Conference rivals square off in Bloomington this evening, as the Northwestern Wildcats have come calling on the 18th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.

Northwestern comes in sporting a 15-9 overall record, which includes a 5-7 mark in conference play. The Wildcats recently had a modest three-game win streak stopped in an 87-77 loss at Purdue, which dropped the team's record in true road games this year to 2-6. Following this clash, NU will play three of its final five regular-season games at home, where it is 10-3 on the year.

Indiana is an impressive 19-6 to this point in the campaign, and the team has won seven of its 13 Big Ten bouts. The Hoosiers claimed an 84-71 triumph over Illinois at home last Thursday in their most recent outing, giving them two straight wins and victories in three of their last four games overall. IU is a near-perfect 14-1 at home this season, its only loss in Bloomington coming against Minnesota back on January 12.

Indiana owns a commanding 109-46 lead in the all-time series with Northwestern, but the Wildcats have won six of the last seven meetings, including two of the last three in Bloomington.

John Shurna scored 30 points in leading four Wildcats in double figures, but still the visitors to Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana found themselves on the short end of an 87-77 final against the hometown Purdue Boilermakers on Sunday. Reggie Hearn finished with 16 points and eight rebounds, Drew Crawford tallied 14 points and Dave Sobolewski chipped in a dozen for Northwestern, which shot 49.1 percent from the field, making 10 three-pointers along the way. Unfortunately for the 'Cats, the Boilermakers nailed 11 treys, claimed a 24-11 edge in points from the foul line, and committed a mere five turnovers. Shurna has certainly proven himself to be one of the better players in the Big Ten, as he averages 19.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per game to lead his team in both categories. Additionally, he paces the club in three-point baskets (65), blocked shots (37) and steals (28). Crawford is also having a stellar campaign, netting 16.8 ppg on the strength of his 41.0 percent effort from downtown, the team as a whole hitting its three-pointers 38.6 percent of the time.

Cody Zeller went 5-of-8 from the field and 12-of-14 at the free-throw line to finish with 22 points, as he led Indiana to its 13-point win over Illinois last week. In addition to Zeller's effort, Christian Watford and Victor Oladipo scored 18 points apiece, and Jordan Hulls tallied 15 points and seven assists for the Hoosiers, who drained half of their 42 field goal attempts, hitting 7-of-12 three-point tries for good measure. A huge 35-12 advantage in points from the foul line was clearly the difference, as IU attempted 42 free throws and the Illini just 15. Zeller (15.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg) leads the team in both scoring and rebounding this season, while Watford (12.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Hulls (12.2 ppg, 3.4 apg) and Oladipo (10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) have been consistent contributors as well. As a collective unit, Indiana is putting up 78.7 ppg in dropping 49.6 percent of its total shots and 43.6 percent of its long-range bombs, while at the defensive end giving up 65.9 ppg with its foes shooting 42.2 percent from the floor overall and 32.7 percent from beyond the arc.

Sporysbook NCAA Basketball Betting News

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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